Short term
QQQ edges higher while the rest of the market slips
QQQ closed at $737.93, up $1.40, or 0.19%, from the prior close of $736.53. The size of that move was almost nothing, but the direction carried the day's real information: the broad market fell, with the S&P down 0.18% and the Dow off 0.22%, and QQQ went the other way. Nothing market-wide was pulling it up, because the market-wide tells were all pointing down.
QQQ opened at $740.11, ranged between a low of $735.34 and a high of $740.58, and settled just below the middle of that range. By this market's own history it was an unremarkable session: the move ranked larger than only 12% of the past 250 sessions, on a range running 0.7 times the recent average and volume at 0.71 times normal.
Underneath, the disagreement was broad. The largest stocks averaged a 0.25% decline, small caps fell 0.34%, and credit slipped too, with high-yield bond funds down 0.23% and 0.27%. Bonds fell as well. All of that leaned one way while QQQ leaned the other, which means none of it explains QQQ's gain today — those signals describe the broad market's session, not this fund's.
The one place that did move with QQQ was the options chain. The max-pain strike, the price at which the most option contracts would expire worthless, dropped from 740 to 727 as the close crossed from below that strike to above it. QQQ finished $10.93 above the 727 strike, between the chain's largest put concentration at 730 and its largest call concentration at 745, with the contracts expiring 1 day out.
Volatility added nothing to the story: the VIX was flat, down 0.12% to 16.05. Between a quiet size, quiet volume and a quiet options gauge, there is little here that changes what stands: the 727, 730 and 745 levels already named.
Best to your trading!